When Kurz Comes

Sebastian Kurz has once again made it to the cover of a magazine. Not as an entrepreneur, but as a highly political person: "Does he want to return?" asked the German "Spiegel" in its Austria edition, already answering it with the addition that the 39-year-old is fueling comeback rumors. 

It is obvious that Kurz did not resign in the wake of the advertisement affair in the fall of 2021 to conclude with politics and completely retire to the private sector. Initially, he even explicitly only "stepped aside." 

Earlier this year, he was on the verge of a comeback: Among others, the governor of Lower Austria, Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP), had implored him to succeed Chancellor and party leader Karl Nehammer. Since there were also resistances against it, however, nothing came of it. 

This seems to have whetted Kurz's appetite for more. He often publicly comments on political issues and occasionally allows himself to be accompanied by political journalists to Israel, so that Austria learns through their reports how successful he is as an entrepreneur.

Meanwhile, everything is set for a comeback: The fact that the FPÖ, despite Herbert Kickl, whom as many people distrust as hardly any other politician in the country, is far ahead in all polls, shows that there is much to gain. It is an expression of a huge dissatisfaction with rulers like Christian Stocker (ÖVP) and Andreas Babler (SPÖ); at the moment, it can only be discharged through the FPÖ because it is the only party that decisively, even radically, opposes the rulers. 

Kurz could also benefit from this: Already in 2017, when he became ÖVP leader and then Chancellor, he demonstrated a keen sense of what many people want to hear; he outwardly positioned himself against the system by announcing cuts within it; he portrayed politicians as quarrelsome and spoke out against mudslinging. 

Through chats, it then became clear that he is no better. Credibility, however, is a minor issue. See Kickl. This leads to the point that the advertisement affair for Kurz, who is presumed innocent, is not yet over; an indictment is possible. Such matters will no longer be a problem in 2025. See ÖVP parliamentary group leader August Wöginger, who also did not resign due to such an affair and would remain even in the event of a first-instance conviction for cronyism, as he says.

Everything is set for a comeback of Kurz, especially in this regard: The ÖVP is down like never before and there is no active member within its ranks who could save it. Its condition is worse than eight and a half years ago, when it felt compelled not only to make Kurz its leader but also to let him have free rein as he wanted at the time. 

All the more, their willingness to do so again is growing. And where this willingness is (still) not present within the party, he can help: Sebastian Kurz would also have the option to form his own party. Then he would be their opponent – and that, in turn, would be their end.

The clock is ticking, for the ÖVP and for Kurz. A favorable time for a comeback would be 2026, before or after the summer. Reason: According to all forecasts, inflation will have subsided by then and the economy will have picked up a bit of momentum again. These would be favorable conditions to start strong in view of the election series starting with the ballot in Upper Austria in autumn 2027 and up to the national election in autumn 2029.

Johannes Huber runs the blog dieSubstanz.at – Analyses and Backgrounds on Politics

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.