Europe Could Experience Heat Summers in 2025

This forecast aligns with predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which also anticipates a very hot upcoming summer.

Heat Summer Approaching?

The MPI-M team concludes a heat summer from ocean data: European heat summers are often preceded by a heat accumulation in the North Atlantic, which builds up about three years before a heat extreme. Such extremely warm summers can therefore be predicted up to three years in advance. The cause of the heat accumulation is anomalies in ocean heat transport, which also affect the atmosphere.

Researchers from the University of Hamburg have calculated various simulations of the European climate from 1962 to 2022 using a climate model developed at MPI-M. For further analyses, those were used that depicted the connection between North Atlantic heat accumulation and heat extremes. To check the quality of the forecasts, the researchers compared the simulations with observational data for the period from 1964 to 2021, during which there were 18 above-average warm summers in Europe.

"The so-called hindcast experiment proves that the heat accumulation is also a reliable indicator for future heat summers," said MPI-M researcher Lara Wallberg. At the end of the simulated period, the evaluation presented in the journal "Geophysical Research Letters" indicates a heat accumulation again - which also suggests an exceptionally hot summer for 2025.

Heatwaves Became More Frequent

Extremely warm summers are becoming more frequent in Europe, as the research team explains. The frequency of heatwaves in Europe has doubled since pre-industrial times, and extremely warm summers, which currently occur every ten years, could occur almost every year by the end of the century.

One of the most extreme summers since records began was experienced by Europe in 2003. The mortality rate increased, many European countries faced water shortages and crop failures. The prediction of such extremes is of fundamental importance for human health and damage limitation, the researchers emphasize.

Record Levels in Seas

The world's oceans, and particularly the North Atlantic, have recorded exceptional heat records in recent years. For about a year, the average surface temperature in the North Atlantic was at the highest daily level since measurements began around 40 years ago - often with a significant margin over the previous daily record. This was shown by data from the "Climate Reanalyzer" platform of the American University of Maine.

The warming is far beyond natural fluctuations, climate experts have emphasized. The main cause is human activity: oceans absorb over 90 percent of the heat that remains in the atmosphere due to the increase in greenhouse gases.

(APA/Red)

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