Will the Northern Lights Appear Over Austria in 2026?

Even though the sun is heading towards its activity minimum, experts still see chances for northern lights in our latitudes next year. In 2026, there could be three to five geomagnetic storms strong enough to cause northern lights in Central Europe, explained space weather researcher Christian Möstl upon request from the APA. With suitable weather, there could be one or two opportunities to see the Aurora Borealis in this country.

"Sunspot Relative Number"

After the sun reached its maximum in the current, approximately eleven-year activity cycle in 2024, it is now in the declining phase. Its activity is measured by the number of sunspots, from which the "sunspot relative number" is calculated. This value provides insight into how magnetically active the sun is and facilitates comparison with previous cycles.

"In general, the more sunspots there are, the more solar storms we can expect, which simultaneously increases the likelihood that more solar storms will hit the Earth," emphasized Möstl, head of the Austrian Space Weather Office of GeoSphere Austria in Graz. In 2024, 49 solar storms hit the Earth's magnetic field, up to 35 solar storms are expected for the ending year 2025, and 20 to 30 storms for the coming year.

Until the activity minimum, which is forecasted for 2030, a continuous decrease in solar storms per year is expected. Nevertheless, stronger solar storms often occur in the declining phase of the cycle than at the beginning of the cycle, with potentially stronger geomagnetic effects such as northern lights or technical disturbances, according to Möstl and his colleague Eva Weiler.

To see northern lights in Central Europe, several conditions must be met: The geomagnetic storm must be strong enough, its peak must occur at night, and there should be clear skies. This was the case with the most recent northern lights visible in Austria on the night of November 12. But even during this event, the so-called "Aurora Oval," the region around the North and South Poles where the often green aurora is directly visible in the sky, did not extend to Central Europe.

"Red Aurora" vs. "Green Aurora"

"When we observe northern lights in this country, we usually see the so-called 'Red Aurora,' which is caused by the collision of oxygen atoms with very fast particles from the Earth's magnetic field at altitudes above 300 kilometers," said Eva Weiler from the Austrian Space Weather Office. In contrast, the "Green Aurora," known from many photos, occurs at about 100 kilometers altitude.

In total, there were seven stronger geomagnetic storms in 2025 that had the potential for auroras in Central Europe. During two storms in January and November, the weather in large parts of Austria cooperated, allowing the observation of the luminous phenomenon. The solar storm on the night of November 12th was, by the way, the third strongest of the current activity cycle.

For 2026, experts now expect three to five geomagnetic storms strong enough to cause auroras in Central Europe. "If the weather cooperates, there could indeed be one or two more opportunities to see auroras here before the sun enters the next activity minimum around the year 2030," said Möstl.

However, solar storms not only cause the fascinating luminous phenomena in the night sky but also problems with technical infrastructure. During the strongest storm of the year on November 12th, there were worldwide disruptions of radio communications and satellite navigation systems, especially in Europe, Africa, and Asia.

Software Update for 6,000 Jets

"Solar radiation" is also said to have led to an incident on October 30th involving an Airbus A320 family aircraft, which forced the aircraft manufacturer to issue a software update for 6,000 jets. According to Möstl, this is being discussed in the research community because there were no significant solar eruptions on that day. It is more likely that this problem was caused by a high-energy particle from cosmic radiation. However, particles from the sun could cause similar disruptions.

No wonder there are numerous activities aimed at better understanding space weather and predicting solar storms. In March of this year, NASA's "PUNCH" mission was launched. The four satellites have already provided the first images of solar storms and the solar wind. In September, the SWFO-L1 mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was launched to the Lagrange Point 1 between Earth and the Sun. Equipped with electronics from the Graz Institute for Space Research (IWF) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), the satellite is intended to provide early warnings of solar storms.

Science is also using the upcoming activity minimum around 2030 to prepare for the subsequent next solar activity cycle. At the end of November, the European Space Agency (ESA) brought several missions into the planning phase at the ministerial conference to improve space weather forecasting, such as space probes that will continuously take images of the aurora oval from Earth's orbit. Additionally, the SHIELD mission plans a fleet of small satellites that will orbit the Earth at a great distance, potentially extending the lead time for solar storm warnings. However, this will not be possible until the next solar maximum well into the 2030s.

(APA/Red)

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