Contrary to the ÖVP's expectations, the criticism of the coalition negotiations did not only come from Berlin, but also from Brussels, Paris, London, and Washington. In addition to the fear of information leakage to Russia, there were also "absurd demands" from the FPÖ.

Major Damage Feared After BVT Raid

Jurka mentioned, for example, the rejection of flying the European flag on government buildings. "This irritated abroad because it goes beyond Orbán," said the Vienna-born political consultant. "The persistence of Kickl in European and foreign policy was completely underestimated," said the ÖVP-affiliated expert, referring to the previous chancellor party. Nevertheless, he is "not at all" surprised by the emerging end of the negotiations. "I did not believe they could come to a positive result." In budget and financial matters, the FPÖ and ÖVP could have agreed, but in European and foreign policy, the differences were too great.

The "great original sin" of the FPÖ was the raid on the intelligence service BVT conducted under the then Interior Minister Herbert Kickl. Internationally, the impression was that the raid "was carried out to provide (Kremlin chief Vladimir) Putin with information." This is precisely what was feared now. In relations with Germany, "an FPÖ participation in government would mean great damage for Austria," said Jurka. "If the FPÖ is involved, trust would be gone." On the other hand, it would be "helpful" if both countries had a coalition of conservatives and social democrats in the future. "They could work well together."

"Austria Painted as a Bogeyman"

A possible collapse of the blue-black government dreams will have no influence on the German federal election campaign. "Austria no longer plays a role," said Jurka. After all, the topic of cooperation with the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) was "off the table" following corresponding statements by the Union's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. Austrian politics last played a similarly prominent role in Germany during the times of SPÖ Chancellor Bruno Kreisky (1970-83) as in the current election campaign, Jurka admitted. "Austria was painted as a bogeyman," he said, referring to a possible FPÖ-led federal government. In this context, there was an equation of the FPÖ with the AfD, which is "not correct." While the FPÖ sits in state governments in several federal states and this "works quite well" in some cases, there is a "willingness to use violence" with the AfD.

German Chancellor Candidate Merz "Fell into the Trap" of the AfD

Jurka criticized the emphasis on the asylum issue by the Union's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz following the deadly knife attack in Aschaffenburg. In this regard, there was a "thinking error" by the CDU leader. "He thought he could take away a topic from the AfD. In reality, he helped them," said the expert. Merz "fell into the trap" of the AfD with his proposals in the Bundestag, which were considered contrary to European law even within his own ranks, according to Jurka. While the Union parties have fallen below 30 percent in the polls, the AfD is already over 20 percent.

After the election on February 23, government formation in Germany could be similarly problematic as in Austria, said Jurka. Because the FDP will probably not manage to re-enter and the Greens are even more strongly rejected as coalition partners than in Austria, it will come down to a grand coalition of Union parties and SPD. Whether this will have a majority depends on the performance of the two smaller left-wing parties - the Left and the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). If one of them narrowly misses the five-percent hurdle, 44 percent could be enough for the so-called chancellor majority in the Bundestag. Jurka expects that the Union will "just under 30 percent" and the SPD 16 percent, which in this scenario would be enough for a joint majority of mandates.

(The conversation was conducted by Stefan Vospernik/APA)

This article has been automatically translated, read the original article here.